Election 2016: Peering into the future

REID SLAUGHTER, Opinion Columnist

The delegate math for both sides of the 2016 election has started to tighten amongst two primary campaigns who were expecting to wrap it up much earlier.

Hillary Clinton is experiencing a losing streak and a much longer Democratic primary campaign than initially expected due to Bernie Sander’s insurgent campaign. Donald Trump is also experiencing somewhat of a lag due to the #neverTrump movement supported by the GOP establishment and Ted Cruz.

But at this point in the game you can begin to map out what the future will be, however that doesn’t mean that the choices are the best. Some can result in the destruction of a party.

Democratic Primary

Scenario #1: Bernie gets the delegate count.
Bernie Sanders getting the nomination for the Democrats is the best situation for liberals. He easily beats any republican, including John Kasich and Trump, and Clinton supporters like him.

It will be relatively easy for Sanders to unite the party under him. He isn’t disliked by anyone, including hard right conservatives. He has no negatives and he would go on to become a strong candidate out of his principles.

Scenario #2: Hillary gets the delegate count.
Hillary however has an issue. While #nevertrump may be trending on twitter, there is a new hashtag that will be trending all too soon. #neverhillary. In February a CNN/ORC poll found that 20 percent will not support Hillary Clinton if she is the nominee.

On April 6, Politico reported than 25 percent will not support Clinton. If that continues to grow, Clinton has a problem: low Democratic voter turnout results in Democrats losing.

Scenario #3: Contested Convention
Despite Clinton’s superdelegates, the Sanders’ insurgency is able to prevent her from winning outright. This causes infighting between the Liberals and the Progressives.

This will weaken the party in a general election as it will, in some way, result in one of the groups being too upset to vote for the other.

Republican Primary

Scenario #1: Trump gets the delegate count on the first ballot.
Trump getting the nomination is the best situation for Republicans. He may not have a majority, but he does have a plurality and the most support out of all of the votes.

Trump has been able to appeal to moderates, independents and even some working class “Blue Dog” Democrats.

While his general election campaign would be a sight to behold, it is much easier for the #nevertrump Republicans to hold their nose and vote for him.

Scenario #2: Trump fails to get to 1237 delegates, Ted Cruz wins the 2nd vote.

Here’s where the problems for the Republican party come in. If any candidate fails to get 1,237 delegates, they proceed to a contested convention where delegates vote again.

Cruz behind the scenes (along with the GOP est.) has been ensuring that Republican delegates are not Trump supporters regardless if he wins the state and they are bound to him.

Therefore, they’ll vote for him because they have to, then drop him. This will upset Trump supporters. The chances of Trump supporters going for Cruz at this point is minute. In some polls Trump has support in the upper 30’s, in others low 50’s. Cruz cannot win an election without their votes.

Scenario #3: Trump and Cruz fail to get 1,237 delegates. GOP est. determines nominee. If Trump fails to get to 1,237, then Cruz fails to get to 1,237 in the 2nd ballot called a contested convention, then the GOP est. will just pick someone in what is called a brokered convention.

There’s a slight problem though. The GOP est. hates Trump and Cruz equally. As far as the est. is concerned, they both do not represent the GOP despite having combined 70 percent (Trump 50, Cruz 20) of the republican party.

The establishment will choose someone like a Marco Rubio, Kasich, Jeb! (Bush) or Romney and then go from there. The entire Republican primary election thus far as been a massive pushback against the Neo-Conservative (Reagan) establishment of the Republican party.

This would not only tick off Trump supporters, but Cruz supporters as well. Cruz already can’t win without Trump supporters, but someone like a Rubio couldn’t win without both of their support.