Fantasy NBA is about getting more value out of your roster than anybody else. Fundamentally, this means having quality players producing good stats in their real-life games consistently. Strategically, this means finding ways to contribute more production with minimal drawbacks. Finding a roster loaded with quality dudes isn’t too difficult. It’s the nuts-and-bolts game you need to be wary of.
The two aspects most players don’t consider in Fantasy are the schedule and the coaching staff. Though these seem like abstract ideas in relation to a make-believe hobby, understanding how to value and manipulate them is important to gaining a leg up in the Fantasy realm.
Reading a schedule is more about weighing a player’s potential than checking to see what he’s up to. When you drop a flop for a currently-unowned player off the waiver wire (the pool of players no one has on their team), check not only the new addition’s stats, but also his upcoming schedule to see if a guy with less impressive numbers could be a better fit.
If two players are unowned and both have similar stats, one could have a much more loaded schedule in the next two or three weeks, and since he would be playing more games, he is then more profitable to a team. Squeezing extra games into a player’s schedule can change his value. Some players have outright fewer points per game or turn over the ball more than they should than the first available option, but they will accumulate more stats while plugged in to a stronger schedule.
Three games a week is standard for any player, sometimes creeping up to four on road trips or busy weekends. If a player has three weeks straight of four games per, or maybe even a fifth in there somewhere, he has three or four extra opportunities to bolster your stat line, even without injuries, trades or coaching decisions affecting his value.
Also, check which teams the player is scheduled to face off against and check their records. A stack of games against the league’s doormats, i.e. the Nets, Timberwolves, Bulls, Pacers or Warriors, mean a better chance to shine as compared to a powerhouse like the Celtics or Magic. Value games against terrible teams a bit higher, but beware of a blowout. If a dude helps his team crack open a 25-point tilt, he will probably be sitting for a while; the end of lopsided games is often referred to as “garbage minutes” and usually goes to shaky or young players who need in-game experience.
Coaching affects not only how a player develops and how he fits into a team’s system, but also where his minutes come from and how he earns those minutes. If you get a chance, sit down and watch an entire game. You’ll see certain types of players, like good free throw shooters and spot-up three ball specialists, get more run time late to seal the deal, while window cleaners and spark plugs chip in their respective rebounds and scoring runs in the middle of a contest.
Some coaches, such as Warriors honcho Don Nelson, have a terrible habit of giving minutes to players whenever he feels like it, on whatever whim he fancies. Nelson never gives out the same minutes for more than four or five games, instead shaking things up to try a new approach. Larry Brown, at the helm in Charlotte, is quite the opposite. He only switches things up in dire circumstances, and rarely plays extended minutes to rookies or offensively-challenged dudes under seven feet. You can expect Brown to stick to his guns unless an injury forces his hand.
Players and coaches have tedious relationships that can affect stat production and floor time. Nate Robinson, a talented scoring guard known for somewhat childish tendencies, is currently in Coach D’Antoni’s doghouse and hasn’t seen playing time for almost two weeks. Robinson has the ability to beat out his teammates for action, but until he can behave on the court and keep his head in check, he will be riding the pine for a while.12
