In a given sports season, players go through a natural flux of high and low periods, regardless of outside influences such as coaching decisions or injuries. Some days a dude’s shot will fall like rain, others he can’t buy a bucket to save his life. Picking up on these natural changes is important to properly evaluate how productive a player is, both on average and in the short term. Nabbing players while they are hot or trading for players in the midst of a shooting slump can completely alter the state of your roster.

The key is not only to track break out performances, but recognize whether they are happening occasionally or on a reliable basis, and then speculate on their potential in one of your roster slots. If a player has a 20-point game in January amid a dozen or so single-digit outings, this may be a fluke or result of another player’s injury, so take these with a grain of salt. As a wise man once said, once is coincidence, twice is evidence. When scoring bursts become a regular fix every other week, maybe you can plan on starting him occasionally when no one else is playing and pick up a ton of unexpected value.

Here’s a check up on some hot players who may or may not be roster-worthy. Keep an eye on these guys because if they become too reliable, others may pick them up on their radar and snatch them up before you get a chance.

C.J. Watson has been playing surprisingly well for the Warriors despite the emergence of Stephen Curry alongside rotation mainstay Monta Ellis. Watson has upped his scoring on several occasions as of late, and Golden State’s game plan leaves plenty of opportunity for extra points. The guard rotation in Oakland is producing at a high rate, and after you account for the general disappointment in the Warriors’ front court, coach Don Nelson will be forced to rely on his backup guards more and more. Watson probably deserves a roster spot in most leagues.

Tracy McGrady is determined to make a comeback, and the Knicks are in no position to argue otherwise. McGrady broke out of the post-trade world with a solid 26-point showing, but don’t expect those kinds of numbers all the time. T-Mac is not who he used to be, and these numbers are a bit extreme, but he could settle into the 17-19 point range, with solid all-around numbers due to his immense talent and basketball IQ. If he’s out there, pick him up when you can, but not at the expense of a proven scorer. McGrady is now better than any marginal rotation player you are forced to carry with you.

Al Thornton has been the model for inconsistency. The ‘tweener forward has marked the early years of his career with bouts of sketchy play broken up with the occasional all-star caliber game. Now he can prove his worth with consistent starter minutes in Washington, and is easily capable of scoring 18 points with a stat line close to six boards, two assists, two steals-plus-blocks and 50 percent shooting. Thornton is the most versatile player the Wizards have right now, and a lot of the leadership on the hardwood should fall onto his shoulders.

With Thornton stepping in to play major minutes, teammate Andre Blatche looks like the man who will suffer the most. Despite Blatche’s scoring ability from inside and long range, Andre is notorious for poor behavior on and off the court and has earned a reputation as selfish. Over the last few games, Blatche has chipped in 22 points and nine rebounds per, but I suspect those numbers will come down to earth. Once Washington settles into a rotation, most likely featuring Randy Foye and Thornton ahead of Blatche, his production should cool to something like 13 points and five rebounds nightly, which is much less exciting when you realize Blatche’s tendency to take terrible shots and lower his own field goal percentage. Wait on him if you’re interested; he should be available if he continues to produce.

That’s all for this week, but next issue I’ll touch on the most difficult decision in fantasy basketball: when two similar players are vying for one roster spot, who do you start? Good luck and happy gaming!